UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
21 Aug 2021
Middleweight
VS
57%
Cannonier
43%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cannonier
This is a genuine toss-up — Cannonier at 57% vs Gastelum at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Gastelum throws more volume but Cannonier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cannonier's chin rating of 22 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cannonier
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
77"+
Reach
71"
42
Age
+34
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Cannonier
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.3
41.4
49.3
Performance Avg
47.4
46
Quality of Victory
42
82
Momentum Score
28
Cannonier
Gastelum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
56%
Strike Accuracy
43%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
7
2
Body
2
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
12Distance12
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Cannonier
Gastelum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
0.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cannonier
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
22
38
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/27 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Cannonier
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
28
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Cannonier
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
36%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cannonier
Gastelum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
CannonierGastelum
Strike Zones
Cannonier
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedGastelum
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cannonier targets the head (69% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (58% of attacks) — Cannonier absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cannonier
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cannonier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Cannonier · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 6.3Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R4
Gregory RodriguesRating 7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R5
Caio BorralhoRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · KO · R4
Nassourdine ImavovRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R5
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12