UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Shanghai, China
23 Aug 2025
Lightweight
VS
58%
42%
Hubbard
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Rongzhu
Rongzhu
27 – 6
5'9"72" reachOrthodox26 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 44
Austin
Austin Hubbard
"Thud"
17 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 32

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge:

This is a genuine toss-up — at 58% vs Hubbard at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hubbard has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Hubbard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
72"+
Reach
71"
26+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hubbard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.3
31.7
40.0
Performance Avg
28.7
33
Quality of Victory
26
50
Momentum Score
41
Hubbard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
41
Head
20
9
Body
9
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
52Distance28
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Hubbard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hubbard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/33 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Hubbard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
41
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Hubbard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hubbard
Striking4.3 / 0.7Volume6.3 / 6.7Grappling1.6 / 1.8Wrestling1.1 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Strike Zones
Hubbard
Attacking
41HEAD9BODY2LEGS52 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD9BODY0LEGS29 absorbed
Hubbard
Attacking
20HEAD9BODY0LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
41HEAD9BODY2LEGS52 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯 targets the head (79% of attacks) — Hubbard absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Hubbard targets the head (69% of attacks) — absorbs 69% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

RND
Hubbard
0/0R00/0

· QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L5.5W5.3L6.5L5.9W4.5W2021-042021-092022-022024-092025-022025-08
WinLossTrend

Hubbard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W5.7L4.2W2.2L4.5W5.7L2.8L4.5W6.4L6.8L6.0L2019-052020-062021-082024-102025-08
WinLossTrend

· Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Kody SteeleRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · R2
Chris PadillaRating 6.5
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · Sub · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · 2022-02
W · KO · R3
Brandon JenkinsRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09

Hubbard · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
RongzhuRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
MarQuel MederosRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Michal FiglakRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Sub · R2
Kurt HolobaughRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

News & Media

Rongzhu · Austin Hubbard
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