UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
Las Vegas, USA
20 Nov 2021
Featherweight
VS
74%
Sabatini
26%
Lutz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sabatini
Sabatini is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Lutz throws more volume but Sabatini connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sabatini's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sabatini
Lutz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
+72"
35
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sabatini
Lutz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
19.7
53.2
Performance Avg
25.0
34
Quality of Victory
25
81
Momentum Score
17
Sabatini
Lutz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.9
51%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
3
Body
6
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance2
2Clinch5
0Ground0
Sabatini
Lutz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sabatini
Lutz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Sabatini
Lutz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
17
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Sabatini
Lutz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sabatini
Lutz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
SabatiniLutz
Strike Zones
Sabatini
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedLutz
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sabatini targets the head (57% of attacks) — Lutz absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Lutz targets the body (86% of attacks) — Sabatini absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sabatini
RND
Lutz
0/0R00/0
Sabatini · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Lutz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Sabatini · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
William GomisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 5.6Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Joanderson BritoRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Diego LopesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
Lutz · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Melsik BaghdasaryanRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Sub · R2
Daniel PinedaRating 3.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
W · Dec · R3
Kevin AguilarRating 4.5Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05