Pat Sabatini vs Tucker Lutz — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate

Las Vegas, USA

20 Nov 2021

Featherweight

74%

Sabatini

26%

Lutz

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Pat Sabatini

22 – 5

5'8"70" reachOrthodox35 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 56

Tucker Lutz

"Top Gun"

12 – 4

Well-Rounded3-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'8"

CFR 20

★ Official Result

Pat SabatiniwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Tucker Lutz · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Sabatini

→

Actual result

Sabatini wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Sabatini is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Lutz throws more volume but Sabatini connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sabatini's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

SabatiniLutz

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Sabatini

Lutz

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'8"

Height

5'8"

70"

Reach

+72"

Age

+32

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Sabatini

Lutz

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

55.7

19.7

53.2

Performance Avg

25.0

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Sabatini

Lutz

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.5

0.9

51%

Strike Accuracy

40%

1.6

Striking Style Score (/10)

0.5

0 KOs

KO Finishes

0 KOs

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

5Distance2

2Clinch5

0Ground0

Sabatini

Lutz

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.3

/ 10

2.4

/ 10

3.0

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.7

3.3

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Sabatini

Lutz

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

11/27 fights

Chin rating based on

4/16 fights

Sabatini

Lutz

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

4-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

L · KO · R1

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Sabatini

Lutz

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

33%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sabatini

Lutz

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

0.5

4.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.4

3.0

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.7

3.3

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

4.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

0.8

7.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

8.5

Sabatini

Strike Zones

Lutz

Sabatini

Attacking

7 landed

Absorbing

7 absorbed

Lutz

Attacking

7 landed

Absorbing

7 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Sabatini targets the head (57% of attacks) — Lutz absorbs 57% of strikes there

🎯Lutz targets the body (86% of attacks) — Sabatini absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sabatini

RND

Lutz

0/0R00/0

Sabatini · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7

WinLossTrend

Lutz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2

WinLossTrend

Sabatini · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

William GomisRating 5.5

Decision

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

W · Dec · R3

Chepe MariscalRating 5.6

Decision

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · Dec · R3

Joanderson BritoRating 6.1

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04

W · Sub · R1

Jonathan PearceRating 5.5

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10

L · KO · R1

Diego LopesRating 2.8

KO/TKO

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Lutz · Last 4

L · Dec · R3

Melsik BaghdasaryanRating 6

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07

L · Sub · R2

Daniel PinedaRating 3.6

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03

L · Dec · R3

Pat SabatiniRating 6.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11

W · Dec · R3

Kevin AguilarRating 4.5

Decision

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05

News & Media

Pat Sabatini · Tucker Lutz

← Back to fights