METRICS GUIDE

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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Jacksonville, USA
24 Apr 2021
Middleweight
VS
23%
Roberson
77%
Allen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:55
KR
Karl Roberson
"Baby K"
9 – 6
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw35 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Brendan
Brendan Allen
"All In"
26 – 7
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak30 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 61
★ Official Result
Brendan AllenwinsSubmissionR1 · 4:55
def. Karl Roberson · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Allen
→
Actual result
Allen wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

Allen is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Roberson's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Allen has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
RobersonAllen
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Roberson
Allen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+75"
35
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Roberson
Allen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
61.3
38.3
Performance Avg
56.6
37
Quality of Victory
42
25
Momentum Score
88
Roberson
Allen
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
4.7
Style: Pressure
6.6
4.8
Style: Volume
4.8
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
0
Body
1
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
6Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Roberson
Allen
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
4.7
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.3
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.7
2
Submission wins
7
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Roberson
Allen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/15 fights
Chin rating based on
20/33 fights
Roberson
Allen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
88
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Roberson
Allen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
7
2
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Roberson
Allen
Striking0.8 / 2.9Volume4.8 / 4.8Grappling5.2 / 4.7Wrestling3.6 / 3.3Submission5.0 / 4.7Pressure4.7 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.7
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.7
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Roberson
Strike Zones
Allen
Roberson
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY4LEGS9 absorbed
Allen
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY4LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Roberson targets the head (83% of attacks) — Allen absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Allen targets the head (44% of attacks) — Roberson absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Roberson
RND
Allen
0/0R00/0

Roberson · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Kennedy Nzechukwu
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Khalil Rountree Jr.
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · Sub · R1
Brendan Allen
Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Marvin Vettori
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
W · Sub · R3
Roman Kopylov
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11

Allen · Last 5

Upcoming
Christian Leroy Duncan
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10
W · Dec · R3
Edmen Shahbazyan
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R4
Reinier de Ridder
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Marvin Vettori
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Hernandez
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02

News & Media

Karl Roberson · Brendan Allen
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