UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Jacksonville, USA
24 Apr 2021
Middleweight
VS
23%
Roberson
77%
Allen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:55
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Allen
Allen is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Allen throws more volume but Roberson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Roberson's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Allen has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Roberson
Allen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+75"
35
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Roberson
Allen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
61.8
38.3
Performance Avg
56.8
37
Quality of Victory
43
25
Momentum Score
88
Roberson
Allen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
55%
Strike Accuracy
53%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
0
Body
1
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
6Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Roberson
Allen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.9
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Roberson
Allen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
12 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/15 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Roberson
Allen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
88
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Roberson
Allen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
64%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
7
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Roberson
Allen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.9
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
RobersonAllen
Strike Zones
Roberson
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedAllen
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Roberson targets the head (83% of attacks) — Allen absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Allen targets the head (44% of attacks) — Roberson absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Roberson
RND
Allen
0/0R00/0
Roberson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Allen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Roberson · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Marvin VettoriRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
W · Sub · R3
Roman KopylovRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
Allen · Last 5
Upcoming
Edmen ShahbazyanUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R4
Reinier de RidderRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Nassourdine ImavovRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09