METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Perth, Australia
27 Sept 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
72%
Crute
28%
Erslan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:19
★ Official Result
Jimmy CrutewinsSubmissionR1 · 3:19
def. Ivan Erslan · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Crute
→
Actual result
Crute wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Crute is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Crute has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Risk flags
Crute's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CruteErslan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Crute
Erslan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
74"+
Reach
72"
30+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Crute
Erslan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.0
26.3
56.7
Performance Avg
25.0
55
Quality of Victory
25
91
Momentum Score
17
Crute
Erslan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.5
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
8.8
Style: Pressure
0.8
1.2
Style: Volume
8.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
9
1
Body
0
8
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance10
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Crute
Erslan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
6.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Crute
Erslan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
Crute
Erslan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
17
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Crute
Erslan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Crute
Erslan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
CruteErslan
Strike Zones
Crute
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedErslan
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Crute targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Erslan absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Erslan targets the head (90% of attacks) — Crute absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Crute
RND
Erslan
0/0R00/0
Crute · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Ivan ErslanSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Marcin PrachnioSubmission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoDecision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Sub · R2
Alonzo MenifieldSubmission
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
Upcoming
Alonzo MenifieldDecision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
Erslan · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Tuco TokkosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Navajo StirlingDecision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09