UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Perth, Australia
27 Sept 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
72%
Crute
28%
Erslan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Crute
Crute is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Crute has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Crute has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Crute's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Crute
Erslan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
74"+
Reach
72"
30+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Crute
Erslan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.0
26.3
56.7
Performance Avg
25.0
55
Quality of Victory
25
91
Momentum Score
17
Crute
Erslan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.6
51%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
9
1
Body
0
8
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance10
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Crute
Erslan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Crute
Erslan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
Crute
Erslan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
17
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Crute
Erslan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Crute
Erslan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
CruteErslan
Strike Zones
Crute
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedErslan
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Crute targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Erslan absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Erslan targets the head (90% of attacks) — Crute absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Crute
RND
Erslan
0/0R00/0
Crute · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Erslan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Crute · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Ivan ErslanRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Marcin PrachnioRating 5.4Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoDecision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Sub · R2
Alonzo MenifieldRating 3.6Submission
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
Upcoming
Alonzo MenifieldDecision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
Erslan · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Tuco TokkosRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteRating 3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Navajo StirlingRating 7Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09