UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
Broomfield, USA
21 Mar 2010
Lightweight
VS
18%
Ludwig
82%
Elkins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:44
DL
Duane Ludwig
"Bang"
21 – 14
5'10"70" reachOrthodox47 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 10
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

Elkins is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ludwig has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ludwig's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Elkins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ludwig
Elkins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
47
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ludwig
Elkins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.1
44.7
38.0
Performance Avg
46.3
34
Quality of Victory
35
10
Momentum Score
66
Ludwig
Elkins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
1.3
39%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ludwig
Elkins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ludwig
Elkins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/35 fights
Chin rating based on
30/41 fights
Ludwig
Elkins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
66
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Ludwig
Elkins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
37%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ludwig
Elkins
Striking3.4 / 3.4Volume6.9 / 6.3Grappling1.8 / 2.8Wrestling1.3 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 1.6Pressure3.1 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.6
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Ludwig
Strike Zones
Elkins
Ludwig
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Elkins
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ludwig targets the head (100% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ludwig
RND
Elkins
0/0R00/0

Ludwig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.0
0104.5W5.0W1.9L2.0L4.5W4.5W1.5L1.5L1.5L2003-042010-032012-012012-09
WinLossTrend

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Ludwig · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Che MillsRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
L · KO · R1
Dan HardyRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
L · Sub · R1
Josh NeerRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
W · Dec · R3
Amir SadollahRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
W · Dec · R3
Nick OsipczakRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami · 2010-11

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

News & Media

Duane Ludwig · Darren Elkins
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