UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Atlanta, USA
14 Jun 2025
Bantamweight
VS
96%
Wellmaker
4%
Moutinho
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:37
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Wellmaker
Wellmaker is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 61 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Wellmaker has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 60 points.
Wellmaker has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Moutinho has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Wellmaker
Moutinho
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
68"
31+
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Wellmaker
Moutinho
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.7
2.6
56.0
Performance Avg
0.0
60
Quality of Victory
0
65
Momentum Score
0
Wellmaker
Moutinho
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
32%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
9
Body
1
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
22Distance6
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Wellmaker
Moutinho
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Wellmaker
Moutinho
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
32
Never stopped
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/22 fights
Wellmaker
Moutinho
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
Wellmaker
Moutinho
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wellmaker
Moutinho
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
WellmakerMoutinho
Strike Zones
Wellmaker
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedMoutinho
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wellmaker targets the head (44% of attacks) — Moutinho absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Moutinho targets the head (50% of attacks) — Wellmaker absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wellmaker
RND
Moutinho
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Wellmaker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Moutinho · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Wellmaker · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Juan DiazRating 4.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ethyn EwingRating 7.2Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Kris MoutinhoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Cameron SaaimanRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
Moutinho · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Cristian QuinonezRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Malcolm WellmakerRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Guido CannettiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · KO · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07