UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
17 Apr 2021
Middleweight
VS
56%
Whittaker
44%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Robert
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
27 – 9
6'0"73" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 53
Kelvin
Kelvin Gastelum
21 – 11
Well-Rounded34 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Whittaker

This is a genuine toss-up — Whittaker at 56% vs Gastelum at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Whittaker has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Whittaker's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Whittaker
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
71"
35
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Whittaker
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.4
41.4
56.0
Performance Avg
47.4
46
Quality of Victory
42
71
Momentum Score
28
Whittaker
Gastelum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
6
0
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance7
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Whittaker
Gastelum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Whittaker
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
38
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Whittaker
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Whittaker
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
35%
36%
6
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
11
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Whittaker
Gastelum
Striking5.0 / 3.3Volume6.6 / 6.3Grappling1.6 / 2.7Wrestling1.1 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 1.4Pressure4.6 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Whittaker
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Whittaker
Attacking
14HEAD0BODY4LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Gastelum
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD0BODY4LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Whittaker targets the head (78% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (86% of attacks) — Whittaker absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Whittaker
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0

Whittaker · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.5W5.7L2.1L4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.3W5.2W4.5W4.5W3.5L4.5W5.5W4.8W6.9L5.3W4.7L5.5W6.7W3.4L6.5L2012-122015-052018-062022-092025-07
WinLossTrend

Gastelum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W6.1L4.5W5.5W3.6L5.0W4.5W6.9L5.5L2.4L4.5W6.4L6.5L5.2W5.1L5.4W7.5L4.5W3.0L2013-042015-112019-112024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Whittaker · Last 5

Upcoming
Nikita Krylov
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Reinier de RidderRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R1
Khamzat ChimaevRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

Gastelum · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3
Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

News & Media

Robert Whittaker · Kelvin Gastelum
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