UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
Brooklyn, USA
11 Feb 2017
Welterweight
VS
48%
Brown
52%
Muhammad
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Muhammad
This is a genuine toss-up — Brown at 48% vs Muhammad at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown
Muhammad
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
78"+
Reach
72"
35+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Muhammad
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
56.8
48.7
Performance Avg
48.5
39
Quality of Victory
31
92
Momentum Score
100
Brown
Muhammad
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch0
3Ground1
Brown
Muhammad
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brown
Muhammad
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
19 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
22/29 fights
Brown
Muhammad
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Brown
Muhammad
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
20%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
Muhammad
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
BrownMuhammad
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMuhammad
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (86% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Muhammad targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
Muhammad
0/0R00/0
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Muhammad · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Brown · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R2
Gabriel BonfimRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R2
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BattleRating 7.3Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Muhammad · Last 5
Upcoming
Gabriel BonfimUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 7Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05