UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
28 Jun 2025
Bantamweight
VS
54%
Talbott
46%
Lima
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Payton
Payton Talbott
11 – 1
5'10"70" reachSwitch27 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 66
Felipe
Felipe Lima
"Jungle Boy"
14 – 2
Well-Rounded28 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Talbott

This is a genuine toss-up — Talbott at 54% vs Lima at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Talbott has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Talbott
Lima
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
68"
27+
Age
28
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Talbott
Lima
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.5
54.7
58.5
Performance Avg
47.7
42
Quality of Victory
35
86
Momentum Score
68
Talbott
Lima
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
0.5
63%
Strike Accuracy
35%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
4
3
Body
2
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
18Distance6
0Clinch1
6Ground0
Talbott
Lima
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Talbott
Lima
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/12 fights
Chin rating based on
3/16 fights
Talbott
Lima
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
86
68
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Talbott
Lima
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Talbott
Lima
Striking5.7 / 1.3Volume4.9 / 5.3Grappling2.6 / 5.2Wrestling1.8 / 3.6Submission2.0 / 5.0Pressure6.7 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Talbott
Strike Zones
Lima
Talbott
Attacking
18HEAD3BODY3LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Lima
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD3BODY3LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Talbott targets the head (75% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Lima targets the head (57% of attacks) — Talbott absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Talbott
RND
Lima
0/0R00/0

Talbott · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W6.2W5.0W6.3L5.5W6.0W2023-112024-032024-062025-012025-062025-12
WinLossTrend

Lima · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.1
0106.7W4.5W7.0L2024-062024-122025-06
WinLossTrend

Talbott · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 6
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Felipe LimaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R1
Yanis GhemmouriRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Cameron SaaimanRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

Lima · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 7
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Sub · R3
Muhammad NaimovRating 6.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06

News & Media

Payton Talbott · Felipe Lima
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