UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Montreal, Canada
17 Nov 2012
Featherweight
VS
56%
Carvalho
44%
Damm
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AC
Antonio Carvalho
"Pato"
15 – 6
5'9"70" reachOrthodox46 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
RD
Rodrigo Damm
13 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'7"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Carvalho

This is a genuine toss-up — Carvalho at 56% vs Damm at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Damm has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Carvalho
Damm
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
+71"
46
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carvalho
Damm
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
13.8
45.5
Performance Avg
37.9
43
Quality of Victory
35
55
Momentum Score
35
Carvalho
Damm
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.6
28%
Strike Accuracy
41%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
13
0
Body
3
9
Leg
2
RangeRange
13Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Carvalho
Damm
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Carvalho
Damm
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
72
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/21 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Carvalho
Damm
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
35
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Carvalho
Damm
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carvalho
Damm
Striking6.0 / 0.9Volume5.0 / 6.2Grappling1.2 / 4.3Wrestling0.8 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure5.0 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Carvalho
Strike Zones
Damm
Carvalho
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY9LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY2LEGS18 absorbed
Damm
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY2LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY9LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carvalho targets the legs (69% of attacks) — Damm absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Damm targets the head (72% of attacks) — Carvalho absorbs 72% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carvalho
RND
Damm
0/0R00/0

Carvalho · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5L5.9W4.5W2.0L2012-012012-072012-112013-03
WinLossTrend

Damm · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.0L5.5L2012-062013-062014-052015-01
WinLossTrend

Carvalho · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo DammRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · KO · R1
Daniel PinedaRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Felipe ArantesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · 2012-01

Damm · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · KO · R3
Al IaquintaRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Rashid MagomedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Ivan JorgeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02
W · Dec · R3
Mizuto HirotaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06

News & Media

Antonio Carvalho · Rodrigo Damm
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