★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Salt Lake City, USA
20 Aug 2022
Welterweight
VS
50%
Usman
50%
Edwards
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 5 · 4:04
Kamaru
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21 – 4
6'0"76" reachSwitch39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Leon
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
22 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'2"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Usman

This is a genuine toss-up — Usman at 50% vs Edwards at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Usman throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Edwards has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Usman
Edwards
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
76"+
Reach
74"
39
Age
+34
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Usman
Edwards
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
57.4
61.2
Performance Avg
51.1
46
Quality of Victory
36
55
Momentum Score
95
Usman
Edwards
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.7
54%
Strike Accuracy
56%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
5
Body
4
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
9Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Usman
Edwards
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Usman
Edwards
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/25 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Usman
Edwards
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
95
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Usman
Edwards
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
29%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Usman
Edwards
Striking4.2 / 3.6Volume7.2 / 7.2Grappling2.1 / 2.3Wrestling1.5 / 1.6Submission0.6 / 0.7Pressure4.7 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.2
Usman
Strike Zones
Edwards
Usman
Attacking
4HEAD5BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD4BODY3LEGS9 absorbed
Edwards
Attacking
2HEAD4BODY3LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD5BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the body (56% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Edwards targets the body (44% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Usman
RND
Edwards
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Usman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.6W4.5W4.7W5.6W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.8W4.5W5.5W5.1W5.8W5.1L6.6L7.4L5.7W2015-072017-092019-122022-082025-06
WinLossTrend

Edwards · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.0W4.5W6.6L4.5W5.5W6.0W4.9W5.5W4.5W5.6W4.7W4.5W6.6W5.6W5.8W6.6L4.5L5.0L2014-112016-102019-032023-122025-11
WinLossTrend

Usman · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

Edwards · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

News & Media

Kamaru Usman · Leon Edwards
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