METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
28 Jun 2025
Flyweight
VS
43%
Royval
57%
Van
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Joshua VanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Brandon Royval · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Van
→
Actual result
Van wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Royval at 43% vs Van at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Royval's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RoyvalVan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Royval
Van
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'5"
68"+
Reach
65"
34
Age
+24
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Royval
Van
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.7
68.6
50.5
Performance Avg
63.7
43
Quality of Victory
46
65
Momentum Score
100
Royval
Van
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
5.8
/ 10
6.2
Style: Pressure
5.5
4.2
Style: Volume
6.6
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
75
Head
57
9
Body
10
2
Leg
11
RangeRange
83Distance70
3Clinch5
0Ground3
Royval
Van
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.9
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
3.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Royval
Van
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/19 fights
Royval
Van
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
100
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Royval
Van
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Royval
Van
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
4.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
RoyvalVan
Strike Zones
Royval
Attacking
86 landedAbsorbing
78 absorbedVan
Attacking
78 landedAbsorbing
86 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Royval targets the head (87% of attacks) — Van absorbs 87% of strikes there
🎯Van targets the head (73% of attacks) — Royval absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Royval
RND
Van
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Royval · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Lone'er KavanaghSubmission
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · KO · R1
Manel KapeKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanDecision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Tatsuro TairaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Van · Last 5
Upcoming
Alexandre PantojaUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09
W · KO · R5
Tatsuro TairaKO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Alexandre PantojaKO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Brandon RoyvalDecision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Bruno SilvaKO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06