METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
28 Jun 2025
Flyweight
VS
43%
Royval
57%
Van
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Joshua VanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Brandon Royval · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Van
→
Actual result
Van wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Royval at 43% vs Van at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Van has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Royval's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RoyvalVan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Royval
Van
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'5"
68"+
Reach
65"
33
Age
+24
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Royval
Van
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.3
67.8
48.2
Performance Avg
62.6
42
Quality of Victory
44
62
Momentum Score
100
Royval
Van
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
3.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
59%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
75
Head
57
9
Body
10
2
Leg
11
RangeRange
83Distance70
3Clinch5
0Ground3
Royval
Van
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Royval
Van
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Royval
Van
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
62
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Royval
Van
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Royval
Van
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
RoyvalVan
Strike Zones
Royval
Attacking
86 landedAbsorbing
78 absorbedVan
Attacking
78 landedAbsorbing
86 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Royval targets the head (87% of attacks) — Van absorbs 87% of strikes there
🎯Van targets the head (73% of attacks) — Royval absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Royval
RND
Van
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Royval · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Van · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Royval · Last 5
Upcoming
Lone'er KavanaghUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · KO · R1
Manel KapeRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Tatsuro TairaRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Van · Last 5
W · KO · R5
Tatsuro TairaRating 7.2KO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.3Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Rei TsuruyaRating 4.7Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03