UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
28 Jun 2025
Flyweight
VS
43%
Royval
57%
Van
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Brandon
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
17 – 9
5'9"68" reachSouthpaw33 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Joshua
Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
17 – 2
Well-Rounded7-fight win streak24 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'5"
CFR 68

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Van

This is a genuine toss-up — Royval at 43% vs Van at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Van has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Royval's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Royval
Van
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'5"
68"+
Reach
65"
33
Age
+24
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Royval
Van
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.3
67.8
48.2
Performance Avg
62.6
42
Quality of Victory
44
62
Momentum Score
100
Royval
Van
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
3.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
59%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
75
Head
57
9
Body
10
2
Leg
11
RangeRange
83Distance70
3Clinch5
0Ground3
Royval
Van
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Royval
Van
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Royval
Van
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
62
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Royval
Van
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Royval
Van
Striking2.6 / 5.8Volume4.6 / 6.6Grappling4.5 / 1.4Wrestling3.1 / 1.0Submission4.3 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Royval
Strike Zones
Van
Royval
Attacking
75HEAD9BODY2LEGS86 landed
Absorbing
57HEAD10BODY11LEGS78 absorbed
Van
Attacking
57HEAD10BODY11LEGS78 landed
Absorbing
75HEAD9BODY2LEGS86 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Royval targets the head (87% of attacks) — Van absorbs 87% of strikes there
🎯Van targets the head (73% of attacks) — Royval absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Royval
RND
Van
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Royval · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.3W6.1W2.4L4.0L4.5W5.2W5.2W6.8L5.4W6.2W7.1L3.2L2020-052021-082023-042024-102025-12
WinLossTrend

Van · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W4.5W5.9W4.9L5.5W4.6W4.7W6.4W5.3W6.3W7.2W2023-062024-072025-032025-122026-05
WinLossTrend

Royval · Last 5

Upcoming
Lone'er Kavanagh
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · KO · R1
Manel KapeRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Tatsuro TairaRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Van · Last 5

W · KO · R5
Tatsuro TairaRating 7.2
KO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Rei TsuruyaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03

News & Media

Brandon Royval · Joshua Van
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