METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
The model calls this a dead-even 50/50 — but one of these heavyweights hits like a freight train from the southpaw stance.
The model has this fight at exactly 50-50, and for once, the algorithm might be perfectly calibrated. These are two heavyweights with identical composite ratings of 59.8, but they arrive at that number through completely different paths — and that divergence is what makes this fight fascinating. Sergei Pavlovich (20-3) remains one of the most terrifying punchers in the UFC. Ranked #3 at heavyweig…
Pavlovich (20-3) is ranked #3 at heavyweight and carries interim title experience. His southpaw stance and 8.95 striking composite make him one of the most dangerous punchers in the division, but his chin rating of 54 leaves him vulnerable against heavy-handed opposition.
Teixeira (9-1) is ranked #11 and riding an 85.3 momentum rating after beating Tai Tuivasa at UFC 325. At 78, his chin is significantly more durable than Pavlovich's, and his youth could be the difference in a fight that goes deep.
Identical 59.8 composite ratings creating a genuine pick'em
Pavlovich's southpaw angles vs Teixeira's orthodox power-hunting style
The 24-point chin durability gap favouring Teixeira (78 vs 54)
Whether Teixeira can absorb Pavlovich's early power and outlast him
Pavlovich's 75% finish rate vs Teixeira's ability to take fights deep
Heavyweight fights can end on a single punch — all technical analysis becomes irrelevant if either man lands clean
Pavlovich's chin rating of 54 means he could be the one who gets stopped if Teixeira connects early
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown