UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
San Jose, USA
19 Nov 2011
Middleweight
VS
28%
Lawlor
72%
Weidman
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:07
TL
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
10 – 6
6'0"74" reachSouthpaw43 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 20
Chris
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
16 – 8
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'2"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Weidman

Weidman is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Weidman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Weidman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Weidman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lawlor
Weidman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+78"
43
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lawlor
Weidman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.8
51.1
48.7
Performance Avg
57.0
45
Quality of Victory
55
75
Momentum Score
51
Lawlor
Weidman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.1
36%
Strike Accuracy
48%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Lawlor
Weidman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
2
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lawlor
Weidman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
0
Never stopped
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
7
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/16 fights
Chin rating based on
20/24 fights
Lawlor
Weidman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
51
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Lawlor
Weidman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
58%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lawlor
Weidman
Striking4.4 / 4.5Volume3.8 / 4.5Grappling3.5 / 3.0Wrestling2.4 / 2.1Submission3.3 / 2.5Pressure6.3 / 5.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Lawlor
Strike Zones
Weidman
Lawlor
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Weidman
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lawlor targets the head (100% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Weidman targets the head (67% of attacks) — Lawlor absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lawlor
RND
Weidman
0/0R00/0

Lawlor · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L4.5W2.3L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W5.5L2008-122010-052012-052015-072016-03
WinLossTrend

Weidman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0104.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.1W5.1W5.1W4.5W5.0W3.4L4.0L2.8L5.6W4.0L2.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.8W3.5L2011-032013-072016-112020-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Lawlor · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
W · KO · R2
Gian VillanteRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
W · Sub · R2
Michael KuiperRating 5.2
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Francis CarmontRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05

Weidman · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Eryk AndersRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08

News & Media

Tom Lawlor · Chris Weidman
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