UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi
St. Louis, USA
14 Jan 2018
Welterweight
VS
85%
Usman
15%
Meek
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Usman
Usman is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Usman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Striking split: Meek throws more volume but Usman connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Usman
Meek
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
74"
39
Age
+37
Switch
Stance
Switch
Usman
Meek
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
9.9
61.2
Performance Avg
25.0
46
Quality of Victory
25
55
Momentum Score
22
Usman
Meek
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
40%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
10
2
Body
3
7
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance10
0Clinch3
14Ground1
Usman
Meek
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.6
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Usman
Meek
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
94
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/25 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Usman
Meek
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
22
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Usman
Meek
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Usman
Meek
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
UsmanMeek
Strike Zones
Usman
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedMeek
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (53% of attacks) — Meek absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Meek targets the head (71% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Usman
RND
Meek
0/0R00/0
Usman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Meek · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Usman · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
Meek · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Bartosz FabinskiRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
W · Dec · R3
Jordan MeinRating 4.5Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12