UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2017
Women's Strawweight
VS
42%
Calvillo
58%
Esparza
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CC
Cynthia Calvillo
9 – 6
5'4"64" reachOrthodox38 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 30
Carla
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'1"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Esparza

This is a genuine toss-up — Calvillo at 42% vs Esparza at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Calvillo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Calvillo's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Esparza has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Calvillo
Esparza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'1"
64"+
Reach
63"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Calvillo
Esparza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.8
40.7
42.8
Performance Avg
45.9
38
Quality of Victory
35
25
Momentum Score
60
Calvillo
Esparza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.8
42%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
12
0
Body
0
0
Leg
10
RangeRange
10Distance21
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Calvillo
Esparza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Calvillo
Esparza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
38
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/15 fights
Chin rating based on
16/28 fights
Calvillo
Esparza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
60
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Calvillo
Esparza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
20%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Calvillo
Esparza
Striking1.0 / 2.3Volume5.0 / 7.7Grappling5.2 / 2.7Wrestling3.6 / 1.9Submission5.0 / 1.0Pressure5.0 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.3
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Calvillo
Strike Zones
Esparza
Calvillo
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY10LEGS22 absorbed
Esparza
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY10LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Calvillo targets the head (100% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Esparza targets the head (55% of attacks) — Calvillo absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Calvillo
RND
Esparza
0/0R00/0

Calvillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.5W4.7W5.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.8L2.3L3.2L5.5L6.0L2017-032017-122020-062021-112023-04
WinLossTrend

Esparza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0106.7W2.1L4.5W5.5L5.1W4.5W5.5L5.9L5.2W5.7W4.5W5.2W6.2W5.9W4.0L6.2L2014-122017-062019-042021-052024-10
WinLossTrend

Calvillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Nina NunesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Andrea LeeRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · KO · R1
Jessica AndradeRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Katlyn CerminaraRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11

Esparza · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

News & Media

Cynthia Calvillo · Carla Esparza
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