UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Jul 2020
Heavyweight
VS
45%
Werdum
55%
Gustafsson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:30
FW
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
24 – 9
6'4"77" reachOrthodox48 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 20
AG
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded4-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'5"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gustafsson

This is a genuine toss-up — Werdum at 45% vs Gustafsson at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Werdum has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Werdum's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gustafsson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Werdum
Gustafsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
+6'5"
77"
Reach
+79"
48
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Werdum
Gustafsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
24.8
57.8
Performance Avg
50.3
52
Quality of Victory
47
72
Momentum Score
39
Werdum
Gustafsson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.2
53%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
9
0
Body
2
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
0Clinch0
1Ground7
Werdum
Gustafsson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Werdum
Gustafsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/33 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Werdum
Gustafsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
39
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Werdum
Gustafsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
70%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Werdum
Gustafsson
Striking4.7 / 6.1Volume4.0 / 3.5Grappling3.5 / 2.3Wrestling2.4 / 1.6Submission3.3 / 2.0Pressure6.7 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Werdum
Strike Zones
Gustafsson
Werdum
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Gustafsson
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Werdum targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (82% of attacks) — Werdum absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Werdum
RND
Gustafsson
0/0R00/0

Werdum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0106.2L5.2W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W5.1W5.2W2.6L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.9W4.6L5.5L5.0W2007-042012-062016-052018-032020-07
WinLossTrend

Gustafsson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W7.3L5.1W1.5L5.5L5.1W5.9W4.5L4.5L1.5L2.7L2009-112011-122015-012019-062022-07
WinLossTrend

Werdum · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Alexander GustafssonRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei OleinikRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R4
Alexander VolkovRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · Dec · R5
Marcin TyburaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
W · Sub · R1
Walt HarrisRating 5
Submission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10

Gustafsson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05

News & Media

Fabricio Werdum · Alexander Gustafsson
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