METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Jul 2020
Heavyweight
VS
45%
Werdum
55%
Gustafsson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:30
★ Official Result
Fabricio WerdumwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:30
def. Alexander Gustafsson · UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gustafsson
→
Actual result
Werdum wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Werdum at 45% vs Gustafsson at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Werdum's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gustafsson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WerdumGustafsson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Werdum
Gustafsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
+6'5"
77"
Reach
+79"
49
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Werdum
Gustafsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
24.8
57.8
Performance Avg
50.3
52
Quality of Victory
47
72
Momentum Score
39
Werdum
Gustafsson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
6.6
4.0
Style: Volume
3.5
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
9
0
Body
2
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
0Clinch0
1Ground7
Werdum
Gustafsson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
4
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Werdum
Gustafsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/33 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Werdum
Gustafsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
39
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Werdum
Gustafsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
70%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Werdum
Gustafsson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
WerdumGustafsson
Strike Zones
Werdum
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedGustafsson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Werdum targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (82% of attacks) — Werdum absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Werdum
RND
Gustafsson
0/0R00/0
Werdum · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Alexander GustafssonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei OleinikDecision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R4
Alexander VolkovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · Dec · R5
Marcin TyburaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
W · Sub · R1
Walt HarrisSubmission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
Gustafsson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesKO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05