UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
Oklahoma City, USA
25 Jun 2017
Lightweight
VS
64%
Powell
36%
Horcher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Powell
Powell holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Horcher has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Powell has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Powell has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Horcher has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Powell
Horcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
70"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Powell
Horcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.6
9.8
46.0
Performance Avg
25.0
60
Quality of Victory
25
22
Momentum Score
33
Powell
Horcher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
38%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
4
Body
1
11
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance7
2Clinch0
4Ground0
Powell
Horcher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Powell
Horcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/13 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Powell
Horcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
33
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Powell
Horcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Powell
Horcher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
PowellHorcher
Strike Zones
Powell
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedHorcher
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Powell targets the legs (55% of attacks) — Horcher absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Horcher targets the head (57% of attacks) — Powell absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Powell
RND
Horcher
0/0R00/0
Powell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Horcher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Powell · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Jesus PinedoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · KO · R1
Alvaro Herrera MendozaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Darrell HorcherRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
Horcher · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Roosevelt RobertsRating 1.7Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Devin PowellRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04