UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Las Vegas, USA
8 Nov 2025
Flyweight
VS
34%
Schnell
66%
Morales
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Morales
Morales holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Schnell has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Morales has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 33 points.
Striking split: Schnell throws more volume but Morales connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Schnell's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Schnell
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
69"
36
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Schnell
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.1
75.6
40.7
Performance Avg
65.6
37
Quality of Victory
69
45
Momentum Score
98
Schnell
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.4
41%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Schnell
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
4.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Schnell
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/27 fights
Chin rating based on
5/17 fights
Schnell
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
98
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Schnell
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Schnell
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
4.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.8
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
SchnellMorales
Strike Zones
Schnell
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedMorales
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Schnell targets the body (50% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (80% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Schnell
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
Schnell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Morales · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Schnell · Last 5
Upcoming
Imanol RodriguezUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
Morales · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Matt SchnellRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Sub · R2
Alibi IdirisRating 5.2Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Eric SheltonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · 2018-11
L · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
W · Sub · R1
Robert SanchezRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08