METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Las Vegas, USA
8 Nov 2025
Flyweight
VS
33%
Schnell
67%
Morales
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:54
★ Official Result
Joseph MoraleswinsSubmissionR1 · 2:54
def. Matt Schnell · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Morales
→
Actual result
Morales wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Morales holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Schnell has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Morales has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 33 points.
Risk flags
Schnell's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SchnellMorales
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Schnell
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
69"
36
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Schnell
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.5
75.6
39.6
Performance Avg
65.6
37
Quality of Victory
69
45
Momentum Score
98
Schnell
Morales
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
4.3
Style: Pressure
8.8
5.5
Style: Volume
1.2
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Schnell
Morales
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.8
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
3.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
4.3
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
3
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Schnell
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
6
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Schnell
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
98
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Schnell
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Schnell
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
4.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.8
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
SchnellMorales
Strike Zones
Schnell
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedMorales
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Schnell targets the body (50% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (80% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Schnell
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
Schnell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alessandro CostaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickDecision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
Morales · Last 5
Upcoming
Brandon MorenoNoche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
W · Sub · R1
Matt SchnellSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Sub · R2
Alibi IdirisSubmission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Eric SheltonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · 2018-11
L · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02