UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jan 2015
Flyweight
VS
80%
Horiguchi
20%
Gaudinot
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Kyoji
Kyoji Horiguchi
"Karate Kid"
36 – 5
5'4"63" reachOrthodox35 yrs5-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 64
LG
Louis Gaudinot
"Goodnight"
8 – 4
Submission Hunter2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'3"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Horiguchi

Horiguchi is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Gaudinot has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Horiguchi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Horiguchi
Gaudinot
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'3"
63"
Reach
63"
35+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Horiguchi
Gaudinot
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.0
16.4
56.7
Performance Avg
39.7
34
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
36
Horiguchi
Gaudinot
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.8
49%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
2
4
Body
0
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
15Distance7
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Horiguchi
Gaudinot
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Horiguchi
Gaudinot
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/41 fights
Chin rating based on
5/12 fights
Horiguchi
Gaudinot
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
Horiguchi
Gaudinot
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Horiguchi
Gaudinot
Striking4.0 / 0.5Volume7.1 / 0.5Grappling2.5 / 8.0Wrestling1.7 / 5.6Submission1.1 / 10.0Pressure5.0 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Horiguchi
Strike Zones
Gaudinot
Horiguchi
Attacking
12HEAD4BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY5LEGS7 absorbed
Gaudinot
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY5LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD4BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Horiguchi targets the head (75% of attacks) — Gaudinot absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Gaudinot targets the legs (71% of attacks) — Horiguchi absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Horiguchi
RND
Gaudinot
0/0R00/0

Horiguchi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.2W4.5W5.0W4.5W4.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W6.6W5.8W2013-102015-012016-052026-02
WinLossTrend

Gaudinot · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.0L5.2W5.6L7.0L2011-122012-052013-082015-01
WinLossTrend

Horiguchi · Last 5

Upcoming
Manel Kape
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Sub · R3
Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ali BagautinovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Neil SeeryRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05

Gaudinot · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kyoji HoriguchiRating 7
Decision
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
Upcoming
Phil Harris
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
L · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Sub · R2
John LinekerRating 5.2
Submission
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
L · KO · R3
Johnny BedfordRating 4
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale · 2011-12

News & Media

Kyoji Horiguchi · Louis Gaudinot
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