UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie
Greenville, USA
22 Jun 2019
Middleweight
VS
53%
Winn
47%
Spicely
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Winn
This is a genuine toss-up — Winn at 53% vs Spicely at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Spicely has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Spicely has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Winn's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Spicely has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Winn
Spicely
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+6'1"
70"
Reach
+73"
36+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Winn
Spicely
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.6
17.3
31.0
Performance Avg
43.8
25
Quality of Victory
54
55
Momentum Score
52
Winn
Spicely
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
48%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
45
Head
39
7
Body
7
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
45Distance32
10Clinch14
0Ground0
Winn
Spicely
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Winn
Spicely
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
30
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/10 fights
Chin rating based on
7/18 fights
Winn
Spicely
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
52
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Winn
Spicely
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Winn
Spicely
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
1.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
WinnSpicely
Strike Zones
Winn
Attacking
55 landedAbsorbing
46 absorbedSpicely
Attacking
46 landedAbsorbing
55 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Winn targets the head (82% of attacks) — Spicely absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Spicely targets the head (85% of attacks) — Winn absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Winn
RND
Spicely
0/0R00/0
Winn · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Spicely · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Winn · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Phil HawesRating 2.8KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Antonio ArroyoRating 4.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
Eric SpicelyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
Spicely · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Deron WinnRating 5.5Decision
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L · KO · R2
Darren StewartRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · KO · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R2
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W · Sub · R1
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 5Submission
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