UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
Sydney, Australia
26 Feb 2011
Welterweight
VS
51%
Penn
49%
Fitch
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BP
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16 – 14
5'9"70" reachOrthodox47 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
JF
Jon Fitch
30 – 7
Well-Rounded48 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Penn

This is a genuine toss-up — Penn at 51% vs Fitch at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Penn has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.

Fitch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Penn's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Penn
Fitch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+74"
47+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Penn
Fitch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.2
21.0
56.9
Performance Avg
52.4
63
Quality of Victory
32
100
Momentum Score
100
Penn
Fitch
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
51%
Strike Accuracy
57%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
21
0
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch4
0Ground20
Penn
Fitch
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.1
4
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Penn
Fitch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/30 fights
Chin rating based on
18/37 fights
Penn
Fitch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Penn
Fitch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
29%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Penn
Fitch
Striking6.0 / 2.4Volume1.6 / 7.4Grappling2.9 / 3.4Wrestling2.0 / 2.4Submission3.3 / 2.1Pressure7.3 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.1
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
1.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.4
Penn
Strike Zones
Fitch
Penn
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD1BODY4LEGS26 absorbed
Fitch
Attacking
21HEAD1BODY4LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Penn targets the head (100% of attacks) — Fitch absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Fitch targets the head (81% of attacks) — Penn absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Penn
RND
Fitch
0/0R00/0

Penn · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W3.4L5.4W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L2.8L3.7L5.5L1.5L6.0L2001-052006-032009-122017-012019-05
WinLossTrend

Fitch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L2005-102007-062009-072012-102013-02
WinLossTrend

Penn · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Ryan HallRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Yair RodriguezRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R3
Frankie EdgarRating 2.8
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07

Fitch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Erick SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Johny HendricksRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
Upcoming
BJ Penn
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08

News & Media

BJ Penn · Jon Fitch
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