UFC 100
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
58%
Coleman
42%
Bonnar
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Coleman
This is a genuine toss-up — Coleman at 58% vs Bonnar at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Coleman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Coleman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Coleman's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bonnar has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Coleman
Bonnar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+79"
61
Age
+49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Coleman
Bonnar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.9
16.5
60.5
Performance Avg
45.2
62
Quality of Victory
40
84
Momentum Score
48
Coleman
Bonnar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.0
61%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch4
2Ground0
Coleman
Bonnar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Coleman
Bonnar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/26 fights
Chin rating based on
15/24 fights
Coleman
Bonnar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
48
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · R3
Coleman
Bonnar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Coleman
Bonnar
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
ColemanBonnar
Strike Zones
Coleman
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedBonnar
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Coleman targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bonnar absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Bonnar targets the head (50% of attacks) — Coleman absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Coleman
RND
Bonnar
0/0R00/0
Coleman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Bonnar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Coleman · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Randy CoutureRating 2.8Submission
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
W · Dec · R3
Stephan BonnarRating 4.5Decision
UFC 100 · 2009-07
L · KO · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 93: Franklin vs Henderson · 2009-01
L · Dec · R2
Pedro RizzoRating 4.8Decision
UFC 18: The Road to the Heavyweight Title · 1999-01
L · KO · R2
Pete WilliamsRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 17: Redemption · 1998-05
Bonnar · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Anderson SilvaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
Kyle KingsburyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · 2011-11
W · Dec · R3
Igor PokrajacRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · 2010-12
W · KO · R2
Krzysztof SoszynskiRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
L · R3
Krzysztof SoszynskiRating 5.5UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02