METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Newark, USA
9 May 2026
Welterweight
VS
43%
Alvarez
57%
Amosov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:13
★ Official Result
Yaroslav AmosovwinsSubmissionR2 · 1:13
def. Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Amosov
→
Actual result
Amosov wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Alvarez at 43% vs Amosov at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alvarez's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlvarezAmosov
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alvarez
Amosov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
75"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alvarez
Amosov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.9
79.2
59.7
Performance Avg
71.0
51
Quality of Victory
52
59
Momentum Score
100
Alvarez
Amosov
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
1.5
57%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Alvarez
Amosov
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alvarez
Amosov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
2/31 fights
Alvarez
Amosov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Alvarez
Amosov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvarez
Amosov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
AlvarezAmosov
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedAmosov
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (83% of attacks) — Amosov absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Amosov targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvarez
RND
Amosov
0/0R00/0
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Amosov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Alvarez · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
Amosov · Last 2
W · Sub · R2
Joel AlvarezRating 6.5Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Sub · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12