METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Newark, USA
9 May 2026
Welterweight
VS
43%
Alvarez
57%
Amosov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:13
★ Official Result
Yaroslav AmosovwinsSubmissionR2 · 1:13
def. Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Amosov
→
Actual result
Amosov wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Alvarez at 43% vs Amosov at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Alvarez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlvarezAmosov
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alvarez
Amosov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
75"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alvarez
Amosov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.3
79.2
57.2
Performance Avg
71.0
51
Quality of Victory
52
59
Momentum Score
100
Alvarez
Amosov
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.3
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
8.1
Style: Pressure
10.0
2.3
Style: Volume
2.0
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Alvarez
Amosov
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alvarez
Amosov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
2/31 fights
Alvarez
Amosov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Alvarez
Amosov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvarez
Amosov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
AlvarezAmosov
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedAmosov
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (83% of attacks) — Amosov absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Amosov targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvarez
RND
Amosov
0/0R00/0
Alvarez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chidi NjokuaniDecision
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08
L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovSubmission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueDecision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
Amosov · Last 2
W · Sub · R2
Joel AlvarezSubmission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Sub · R1
Neil MagnySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12