UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Newark, USA
9 May 2026
Welterweight
VS
43%
Alvarez
57%
Amosov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:13
Joel
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23 – 4
6'3"77" reachOrthodox33 yrsPressure Fighter
CFR 61
Yaroslav
Yaroslav Amosov
30 – 1
Submission Hunter2-fight win streak32 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 79

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Amosov

This is a genuine toss-up — Alvarez at 43% vs Amosov at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alvarez's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alvarez
Amosov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
75"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alvarez
Amosov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.9
79.2
59.7
Performance Avg
71.0
51
Quality of Victory
52
59
Momentum Score
100
Alvarez
Amosov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.5
57%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Alvarez
Amosov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alvarez
Amosov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
2/31 fights
Alvarez
Amosov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Alvarez
Amosov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alvarez
Amosov
Striking6.5 / 2.0Volume2.5 / 2.0Grappling3.3 / 8.0Wrestling2.3 / 5.6Submission3.8 / 10.0Pressure8.3 / 10.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
Alvarez
Strike Zones
Amosov
Alvarez
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Amosov
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (83% of attacks) — Amosov absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Amosov targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alvarez
RND
Amosov
0/0R00/0

Alvarez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.4L5.4W6.3W6.0W6.0W5.0L2019-022020-102023-072025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Amosov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0105.6W6.5W2025-122026-05
WinLossTrend

Alvarez · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

Amosov · Last 2

W · Sub · R2
Joel AlvarezRating 6.5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Sub · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12

News & Media

Joel Alvarez · Yaroslav Amosov
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