UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Bantamweight
VS
58%
Garbrandt
42%
Kelleher
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:42
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Garbrandt
This is a genuine toss-up — Garbrandt at 58% vs Kelleher at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kelleher has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Garbrandt's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelleher has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
65"
Reach
+66"
34+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.6
40.8
51.6
Performance Avg
44.5
47
Quality of Victory
43
97
Momentum Score
61
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
44%
7.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
9
2
Body
1
2
Leg
7
RangeRange
16Distance17
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/22 fights
Chin rating based on
17/40 fights
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
61
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
63%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
GarbrandtKelleher
Strike Zones
Garbrandt
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedKelleher
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garbrandt targets the head (80% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Kelleher targets the head (53% of attacks) — Garbrandt absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garbrandt
RND
Kelleher
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Garbrandt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Kelleher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Garbrandt · Last 5
Upcoming
Adrian YanezUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Xiao LongRating 5.3Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Sub · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8Submission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Brian KelleherRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Kelleher · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01