METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Bantamweight
VS
57%
Garbrandt
43%
Kelleher
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:42
★ Official Result
Cody GarbrandtwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:42
def. Brian Kelleher · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Garbrandt
→
Actual result
Garbrandt wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Garbrandt at 57% vs Kelleher at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Garbrandt's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelleher has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GarbrandtKelleher
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
65"
Reach
+66"
35+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.3
40.8
50.3
Performance Avg
44.5
47
Quality of Victory
43
84
Momentum Score
61
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.1
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
5.9
Style: Pressure
5.8
4.3
Style: Volume
3.9
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
9
2
Body
1
2
Leg
7
RangeRange
16Distance17
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/22 fights
Chin rating based on
17/40 fights
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
61
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
63%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garbrandt
Kelleher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
GarbrandtKelleher
Strike Zones
Garbrandt
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedKelleher
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garbrandt targets the head (80% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Kelleher targets the head (53% of attacks) — Garbrandt absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garbrandt
RND
Kelleher
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Garbrandt · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Adrian YanezKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Xiao LongDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Sub · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoSubmission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Brian KelleherKO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Kelleher · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtKO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovSubmission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01