UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Ottawa, Canada
18 Jun 2016
Flyweight
VS
47%
Bagautinov
53%
Herrera
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AB
Ali Bagautinov
"Puncher"
15 – 6
5'4"65" reachOrthodox40 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 16
GH
Geane Herrera
"La Pulga"
9 – 3
Knockout Artist2-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'5"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herrera

This is a genuine toss-up — Bagautinov at 47% vs Herrera at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Herrera has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.

Bagautinov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Bagautinov
Herrera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
65"
Reach
+66"
40
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bagautinov
Herrera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.5
17.3
41.6
Performance Avg
43.0
31
Quality of Victory
55
45
Momentum Score
29
Bagautinov
Herrera
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.8
40%
Strike Accuracy
36%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
7
Body
0
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance1
1Clinch4
9Ground0
Bagautinov
Herrera
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bagautinov
Herrera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/21 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Bagautinov
Herrera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
29
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Bagautinov
Herrera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bagautinov
Herrera
Striking3.6 / 10.0Volume7.1 / 0.5Grappling1.8 / 0.0Wrestling1.3 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Bagautinov
Strike Zones
Herrera
Bagautinov
Attacking
11HEAD7BODY6LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Herrera
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD7BODY6LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bagautinov targets the head (46% of attacks) — Herrera absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Herrera targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bagautinov absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bagautinov
RND
Herrera
0/0R00/0

Bagautinov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5W4.6W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W7.0L2013-092014-022015-102016-11
WinLossTrend

Herrera · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L2015-082015-122016-062016-11
WinLossTrend

Bagautinov · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kyoji HoriguchiRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Geane HerreraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R5
Demetrious JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
John LinekerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02

Herrera · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Ben NguyenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Ali BagautinovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
W · KO · R2
Joby SanchezRating 5.2
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Ray BorgRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · 2015-08

News & Media

Ali Bagautinov · Geane Herrera
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