METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Ottawa, Canada
18 Jun 2016
Flyweight
VS
48%
Bagautinov
52%
Herrera
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ali BagautinovwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Geane Herrera · UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Herrera
→
Actual result
Bagautinov wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Bagautinov at 48% vs Herrera at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Herrera has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BagautinovHerrera
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bagautinov
Herrera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
65"
Reach
+66"
41
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bagautinov
Herrera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.8
17.3
42.7
Performance Avg
43.0
33
Quality of Victory
55
45
Momentum Score
29
Bagautinov
Herrera
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
3.5
Style: Pressure
7.8
7.1
Style: Volume
0.5
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
7
Body
0
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance1
1Clinch4
9Ground0
Bagautinov
Herrera
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bagautinov
Herrera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/21 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Bagautinov
Herrera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
29
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Bagautinov
Herrera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bagautinov
Herrera
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
BagautinovHerrera
Strike Zones
Bagautinov
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedHerrera
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bagautinov targets the head (46% of attacks) — Herrera absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Herrera targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bagautinov absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bagautinov
RND
Herrera
0/0R00/0
Bagautinov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kyoji HoriguchiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Geane HerreraDecision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R5
Demetrious JohnsonDecision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
John LinekerDecision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
Herrera · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Ben NguyenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Ali BagautinovDecision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
W · KO · R2
Joby SanchezKO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Ray BorgDecision
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · 2015-08