METRICS GUIDE

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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
Vancouver, Canada
27 Aug 2016
Middleweight
VS
41%
McLellan
59%
Chirico
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
GM
Garreth McLellan
"Soldier Boy"
136
6'1"72" reachSouthpaw44 yrs3-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 14
AD
Alessio Di Chirico
"Manzo"
137
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"
CFR 20
★ Official Result
Alessio Di ChiricowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Garreth McLellan · UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Chirico
Actual result
Chirico wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — McLellan at 41% vs Chirico at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

McLellan's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Chirico has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
McLellanChirico
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
Strike Accuracy
McLellan
Chirico
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
72"
Reach
+74"
44
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
McLellan
Chirico
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
20.4
38.0
Performance Avg
39.3
50
Quality of Victory
41
20
Momentum Score
25
McLellan
Chirico
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
5.7
/ 10
7.6
Style: Pressure
4.6
0.4
Style: Volume
4.7
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
14
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance9
3Clinch6
0Ground0
McLellan
Chirico
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McLellan
Chirico
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
36
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
Strikes absorbed / min
5/19 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
McLellan
Chirico
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
25
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
McLellan
Chirico
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McLellan
Chirico
Striking10.0 / 5.7Volume0.4 / 4.7Grappling0.0 / 1.2Wrestling0.0 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
0.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
McLellan
Strike Zones
Chirico
McLellan
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Chirico
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McLellan targets the head (67% of attacks) — Chirico absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Chirico targets the head (93% of attacks) — McLellan absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McLellan
RND
Chirico
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

McLellan · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Paulo Costa
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Alessio Di Chirico
Decision
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
L · KO · R2
Magnus Cedenblad
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · KO · R3
Bubba Bush
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Bartosz Fabinski
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04

Chirico · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Roman Kopylov
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · 2022-09
L · KO · R1
Abdul Razak Alhassan
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
W · KO · R1
Joaquin Buckley
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Zak Cummings
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud Muradov
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09

News & Media

Garreth McLellan · Alessio Di Chirico
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