UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
Vancouver, Canada
27 Aug 2016
Middleweight
VS
41%
McLellan
59%
Chirico
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
GM
Garreth McLellan
"Soldier Boy"
13 – 6
6'1"72" reachSouthpaw43 yrs3-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 14
AD
Alessio Di Chirico
"Manzo"
13 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chirico

This is a genuine toss-up — McLellan at 41% vs Chirico at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

McLellan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

McLellan's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Chirico has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.

McLellan
Chirico
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
72"
Reach
+74"
43
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
McLellan
Chirico
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
20.4
38.0
Performance Avg
39.3
50
Quality of Victory
41
20
Momentum Score
25
McLellan
Chirico
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
43%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
14
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance9
3Clinch6
0Ground0
McLellan
Chirico
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McLellan
Chirico
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
36
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/19 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
McLellan
Chirico
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
25
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
McLellan
Chirico
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McLellan
Chirico
Striking10.0 / 5.7Volume0.4 / 4.7Grappling0.0 / 1.2Wrestling0.0 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
0.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
McLellan
Strike Zones
Chirico
McLellan
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Chirico
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McLellan targets the head (67% of attacks) — Chirico absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Chirico targets the head (93% of attacks) — McLellan absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McLellan
RND
Chirico
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

McLellan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L5.5W2.8L5.5L2.5L2015-042015-102016-052016-082017-03
WinLossTrend

Chirico · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W1.5L5.2W5.0W6.1L6.5L5.9L6.2W3.0L5.0L2016-042017-122019-092021-082022-09
WinLossTrend

McLellan · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Paulo CostaRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
L · KO · R2
Magnus CedenbladRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · KO · R3
Bubba BushRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Bartosz FabinskiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04

Chirico · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · 2022-09
L · KO · R1
Abdul Razak AlhassanRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
W · KO · R1
Joaquin BuckleyRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09

News & Media

Garreth McLellan · Alessio Di Chirico
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