UFC 85: Bedlam
London, United Kingdom
7 Jun 2008
Welterweight
VS
54%
Burns
46%
Carneiro
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:50
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Burns
This is a genuine toss-up — Burns at 54% vs Carneiro at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Burns has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Burns throws more volume but Carneiro connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Burns's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Carneiro has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Burns
Carneiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
74"
Reach
+76"
46+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Carneiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.6
16.1
45.8
Performance Avg
41.6
50
Quality of Victory
40
59
Momentum Score
59
Burns
Carneiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
36%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
1Clinch0
2Ground3
Burns
Carneiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.0
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burns
Carneiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/19 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Burns
Carneiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
59
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Burns
Carneiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burns
Carneiro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
BurnsCarneiro
Strike Zones
Burns
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedCarneiro
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (83% of attacks) — Carneiro absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Carneiro targets the head (60% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burns
RND
Carneiro
0/0R00/0
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Carneiro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R1
TJ GrantRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale · 2009-06
L · KO · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 4KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12
W · KO · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC: Silva vs Irvin · 2008-07
W · Sub · R2
Roan CarneiroRating 5.2Submission
UFC 85: Bedlam · 2008-06
Carneiro · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Sub · R1
Mark MunozRating 5Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Ryo ChonanRating 5.5Decision
UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09