UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
Perth, Australia
10 Feb 2018
Flyweight
VS
46%
Formiga
54%
Nguyen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:43
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nguyen
This is a genuine toss-up — Formiga at 46% vs Nguyen at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Nguyen has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Nguyen throws more volume but Formiga connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Formiga's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nguyen has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Formiga
Nguyen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
5'5"
67"+
Reach
65"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Formiga
Nguyen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.9
17.6
42.7
Performance Avg
51.8
34
Quality of Victory
48
64
Momentum Score
33
Formiga
Nguyen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.6
40%
Strike Accuracy
37%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Formiga
Nguyen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Formiga
Nguyen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/31 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Formiga
Nguyen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Formiga
Nguyen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
75%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Formiga
Nguyen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
FormigaNguyen
Strike Zones
Formiga
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedNguyen
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Formiga targets the head (93% of attacks) — Nguyen absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Nguyen targets the head (100% of attacks) — Formiga absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Formiga
RND
Nguyen
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Formiga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Nguyen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Formiga · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alex PerezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Brandon MorenoRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
L · KO · R2
Joseph BenavidezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
Nguyen · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Sub · R3
Jussier FormigaRating 4Submission
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
W · Sub · R1
Tim ElliottRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Geane HerreraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · KO · R2
Louis SmolkaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07