UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
New Orleans, USA
6 Jun 2015
Lightweight
VS
72%
Poirier
28%
Medeiros
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Poirier
Poirier is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Medeiros throws more volume but Poirier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Medeiros has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Poirier
Medeiros
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
72"
Reach
+75"
37+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Medeiros
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
24.4
58.2
Performance Avg
45.4
50
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
39
Poirier
Medeiros
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
37%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
10 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
5
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance6
15Clinch0
3Ground0
Poirier
Medeiros
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.4
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Poirier
Medeiros
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
14
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Poirier
Medeiros
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
39
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Poirier
Medeiros
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
83%
10
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
Medeiros
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.1
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
PoirierMedeiros
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedMedeiros
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (93% of attacks) — Medeiros absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Medeiros targets the head (83% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
Medeiros
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Medeiros · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Medeiros · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Lando VannataRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · KO · R2
Gregor GillespieRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · KO · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12