UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
7 Feb 2026
Welterweight
VS
30%
Morono
70%
Donchenko
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Donchenko
Donchenko is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Donchenko has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Donchenko has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Morono's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Morono
Donchenko
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"+
Reach
71"
35
Age
+24
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Morono
Donchenko
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
80.4
43.3
Performance Avg
77.5
35
Quality of Victory
63
20
Momentum Score
100
Morono
Donchenko
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
56%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
13
0
Body
6
0
Leg
15
RangeRange
17Distance33
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Morono
Donchenko
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Morono
Donchenko
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
3/16 fights
Morono
Donchenko
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Morono
Donchenko
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Morono
Donchenko
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
MoronoDonchenko
Strike Zones
Morono
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedDonchenko
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Morono targets the head (100% of attacks) — Donchenko absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Donchenko targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Morono absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Morono
RND
Donchenko
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Morono · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Donchenko · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Morono · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Daniil DonchenkoRating 7.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos LealRating 2.3KO/TKO
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Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
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Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
Donchenko · Last 3
Upcoming
Andreas GustafssonUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Rodrigo SezinandoRating 5KO/TKO
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