★ Championship Bout · Middleweight
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
Las Vegas, USA
5 Jul 2014
Middleweight
VS
73%
Weidman
27%
Machida
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Weidman
Weidman is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Weidman throws more volume but Machida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Weidman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Machida has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Weidman
Machida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
74"
41+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Weidman
Machida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.1
18.7
57.0
Performance Avg
53.8
55
Quality of Victory
45
51
Momentum Score
78
Weidman
Machida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
48%
Strike Accuracy
54%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
18
1
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance15
3Clinch7
3Ground0
Weidman
Machida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Weidman
Machida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
4
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/24 fights
Chin rating based on
24/32 fights
Weidman
Machida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
78
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Weidman
Machida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Weidman
Machida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
WeidmanMachida
Strike Zones
Weidman
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedMachida
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Weidman targets the head (91% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Machida targets the head (82% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Weidman
RND
Machida
0/0R00/0
Weidman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Machida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Weidman · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Eryk AndersRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
Machida · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04