METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Phoenix, USA
17 Feb 2019
Lightweight
VS
66%
Holtzman
34%
Lentz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Nik LentzwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Scott Holtzman · UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Holtzman
→
Actual result
Lentz wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Holtzman holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Lentz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holtzman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holtzman's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lentz has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HoltzmanLentz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Holtzman
Lentz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
69"+
Reach
68"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holtzman
Lentz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.5
16.0
40.6
Performance Avg
45.3
32
Quality of Victory
35
53
Momentum Score
53
Holtzman
Lentz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
1.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
14
7
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance16
6Clinch0
7Ground0
Holtzman
Lentz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holtzman
Lentz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
25/42 fights
Holtzman
Lentz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Holtzman
Lentz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
36%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holtzman
Lentz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
HoltzmanLentz
Strike Zones
Holtzman
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedLentz
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holtzman targets the head (78% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Lentz targets the head (88% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holtzman
RND
Lentz
0/0R00/0
Holtzman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Lentz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Holtzman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · R2
Dong Hyun MaRating 4.2UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
Lentz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10