METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Phoenix, USA
17 Feb 2019
Lightweight
VS
59%
Holtzman
41%
Lentz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Nik LentzwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Scott Holtzman · UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Holtzman
→
Actual result
Lentz wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Holtzman at 59% vs Lentz at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Holtzman's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lentz has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HoltzmanLentz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Holtzman
Lentz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
69"+
Reach
68"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holtzman
Lentz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.1
16.0
40.6
Performance Avg
45.3
32
Quality of Victory
35
53
Momentum Score
53
Holtzman
Lentz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
3.6
Style: Pressure
4.3
5.7
Style: Volume
6.4
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
14
7
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance16
6Clinch0
7Ground0
Holtzman
Lentz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holtzman
Lentz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
25/42 fights
Holtzman
Lentz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Holtzman
Lentz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
36%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holtzman
Lentz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
HoltzmanLentz
Strike Zones
Holtzman
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedLentz
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holtzman targets the head (78% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Lentz targets the head (88% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holtzman
RND
Lentz
0/0R00/0
Holtzman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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Lentz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
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