UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Boston, USA
19 Aug 2023
Middleweight
VS
65%
Rodrigues
35%
Tiuliulin
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:43
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodrigues
Rodrigues holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Tiuliulin has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Tiuliulin throws more volume but Rodrigues connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rodrigues's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tiuliulin has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rodrigues
Tiuliulin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
75"
Reach
+77"
34+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rodrigues
Tiuliulin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.6
36.6
59.3
Performance Avg
39.7
48
Quality of Victory
55
100
Momentum Score
20
Rodrigues
Tiuliulin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
2.6
52%
Strike Accuracy
45%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Rodrigues
Tiuliulin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodrigues
Tiuliulin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/20 fights
Rodrigues
Tiuliulin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
Rodrigues
Tiuliulin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rodrigues
Tiuliulin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.3
RodriguesTiuliulin
Strike Zones
Rodrigues
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTiuliulin
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rodrigues targets the head (80% of attacks) — Tiuliulin absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Tiuliulin targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rodrigues absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rodrigues
RND
Tiuliulin
0/0R00/0
Rodrigues · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Tiuliulin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Rodrigues · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Jared CannonierRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
Tiuliulin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sedriques DumasRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · Sub · R1
JunYong ParkRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02
W · KO · R2
Jamie PickettRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09