UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
Las Vegas, USA
24 May 2014
Bantamweight
VS
47%
Mizugaki
53%
Rivera
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TM
Takeya Mizugaki
21 – 11
5'7"69" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
FR
Francisco Rivera
"Cisco"
11 – 7
Striker3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'8"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rivera

This is a genuine toss-up — Mizugaki at 47% vs Rivera at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Rivera has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Rivera has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Mizugaki's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rivera has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Mizugaki
Rivera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
69"
Reach
+70"
42+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mizugaki
Rivera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
18.7
40.1
Performance Avg
45.2
29
Quality of Victory
49
98
Momentum Score
69
Mizugaki
Rivera
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.8
38%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
16
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance18
0Clinch1
5Ground0
Mizugaki
Rivera
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mizugaki
Rivera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
58
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
11/18 fights
Mizugaki
Rivera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
69
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Mizugaki
Rivera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mizugaki
Rivera
Striking2.4 / 8.3Volume8.1 / 2.8Grappling2.1 / 0.6Wrestling1.5 / 0.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.6 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.3
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
Mizugaki
Strike Zones
Rivera
Mizugaki
Attacking
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD2BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Rivera
Attacking
16HEAD2BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Rivera targets the head (84% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mizugaki
RND
Rivera
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Mizugaki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W5.5L5.2W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.0L4.5W2.6L1.5L2011-032012-112014-052016-082016-12
WinLossTrend

Rivera · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.0L4.5W5.2W5.2W5.5L2.8L5.2W1.5L5.5L5.5L2011-062013-112015-062016-07
WinLossTrend

Mizugaki · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick CruzRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09

Rivera · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Erik PerezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Brad PickettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · Sub · R1
John LinekerRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
W · KO · R1
Alex CaceresRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Urijah FaberRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12

News & Media

Takeya Mizugaki · Francisco Rivera
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