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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
Las Vegas, USA
24 May 2014
Bantamweight
VS
47%
Mizugaki
53%
Rivera
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TM
Takeya Mizugaki
2111
5'7"69" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
FR
Francisco Rivera
"Cisco"
117
Striker3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'8"
CFR 19
★ Official Result
Takeya MizugakiwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Francisco Rivera · UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rivera
Actual result
Mizugaki wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Mizugaki at 47% vs Rivera at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Rivera has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Risk flags

Mizugaki's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rivera has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
MizugakiRivera
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
Strike Accuracy
Mizugaki
Rivera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
69"
Reach
+70"
42+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mizugaki
Rivera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
18.7
40.1
Performance Avg
45.2
29
Quality of Victory
49
98
Momentum Score
69
Mizugaki
Rivera
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
8.3
/ 10
2.6
Style: Pressure
6.5
8.1
Style: Volume
2.8
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
16
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance18
0Clinch1
5Ground0
Mizugaki
Rivera
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mizugaki
Rivera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
58
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Strikes absorbed / min
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
11/18 fights
Mizugaki
Rivera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
69
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Mizugaki
Rivera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mizugaki
Rivera
Striking2.4 / 8.3Volume8.1 / 2.8Grappling2.1 / 0.6Wrestling1.5 / 0.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.6 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.3
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
Mizugaki
Strike Zones
Rivera
Mizugaki
Attacking
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD2BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Rivera
Attacking
16HEAD2BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Rivera targets the head (84% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mizugaki
RND
Rivera
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Mizugaki · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eddie Wineland
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody Garbrandt
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George Roop
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain Sterling
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick Cruz
KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09

Rivera · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Erik Perez
Decision
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Brad Pickett
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · Sub · R1
John Lineker
Submission
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
W · KO · R1
Alex Caceres
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Urijah Faber
Submission
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12

News & Media

Takeya Mizugaki · Francisco Rivera
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