UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Sydney, Australia
9 Sept 2023
Heavyweight
VS
82%
Tafa
18%
Lane
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:22
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tafa
Tafa is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tafa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Tafa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Tafa's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lane has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tafa
Lane
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'6"
74"
Reach
+80"
32+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tafa
Lane
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.1
14.4
53.8
Performance Avg
21.7
60
Quality of Victory
25
98
Momentum Score
0
Tafa
Lane
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.9
54%
Strike Accuracy
49%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
3
0
Body
1
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance7
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Tafa
Lane
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tafa
Lane
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/12 fights
Chin rating based on
7/21 fights
Tafa
Lane
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Tafa
Lane
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tafa
Lane
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.5
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
TafaLane
Strike Zones
Tafa
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedLane
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tafa targets the head (82% of attacks) — Lane absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Lane targets the head (43% of attacks) — Tafa absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tafa
RND
Lane
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Tafa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Lane · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Tafa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · KO · R1
Austen LaneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Upcoming
Austen LaneUFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
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Lane · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Iwo BaraniewskiRating 3.9KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
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L · KO · R2
Mario PintoRating 4.7KO/TKO
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