METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Sao Paulo, Brazil
28 Oct 2017
Lightweight
VS
23%
Dias
77%
Gordon
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Jared GordonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Hacran Dias · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gordon
→
Actual result
Gordon wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Gordon is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gordon has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Gordon has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiasGordon
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Dias
Gordon
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
69"+
Reach
68"
42
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dias
Gordon
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
42.1
30.0
Performance Avg
42.8
25
Quality of Victory
36
50
Momentum Score
63
Dias
Gordon
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
4.4
/ 10
1.1
Style: Pressure
3.9
8.8
Style: Volume
6.4
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
30
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance9
1Clinch1
0Ground21
Dias
Gordon
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dias
Gordon
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/29 fights
Chin rating based on
18/30 fights
Dias
Gordon
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
63
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Dias
Gordon
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dias
Gordon
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
DiasGordon
Strike Zones
Dias
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedGordon
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dias targets the head (88% of attacks) — Gordon absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Gordon targets the head (97% of attacks) — Dias absorbs 97% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dias
RND
Gordon
0/0R00/0
Dias · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonDecision
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Levan MakashviliDecision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
Gordon · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerSubmission
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L · KO · R3
Rafa GarciaKO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Thiago MoisesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Mark MadsenKO/TKO
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