METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 74: Respect
Las Vegas, USA
25 Aug 2007
Lightweight
VS
71%
Guida
29%
Aurelio
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Clay GuidawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Marcus Aurelio · UFC 74: Respect
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Guida wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Guida is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aurelio has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Guida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuidaAurelio
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guida
Aurelio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+74"
44+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Aurelio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
18.4
40.7
Performance Avg
47.5
35
Quality of Victory
57
78
Momentum Score
33
Guida
Aurelio
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
1.0
36%
Strike Accuracy
34%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
20
1
Body
0
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance20
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Guida
Aurelio
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Aurelio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
92
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
6/32 fights
Guida
Aurelio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Guida
Aurelio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Aurelio
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
GuidaAurelio
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedAurelio
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (65% of attacks) — Aurelio absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Aurelio targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Aurelio
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Aurelio · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Aurelio · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08
L · Dec · R3
Hermes FrancaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10
L · Dec · R3
Tyson GriffinRating 5.5Decision
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Sub · R1
Ryan RobertsRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Luke CaudilloRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11