UFC 74: Respect
Las Vegas, USA
25 Aug 2007
Lightweight
VS
71%
Guida
29%
Aurelio
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
MA
Marcus Aurelio
"Maximus"
22 – 10
Pressure Fighter3-fight slide52 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

Guida is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aurelio has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Guida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guida
Aurelio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+74"
44+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Aurelio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
18.4
40.7
Performance Avg
47.5
35
Quality of Victory
57
78
Momentum Score
33
Guida
Aurelio
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.0
36%
Strike Accuracy
34%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
20
1
Body
0
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance20
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Guida
Aurelio
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Aurelio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
92
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
6/32 fights
Guida
Aurelio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Guida
Aurelio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Aurelio
Striking2.1 / 5.7Volume5.9 / 0.7Grappling3.7 / 4.0Wrestling2.6 / 2.8Submission2.8 / 5.0Pressure4.2 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Guida
Strike Zones
Aurelio
Guida
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY5LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD0BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Aurelio
Attacking
20HEAD0BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY5LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (65% of attacks) — Aurelio absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Aurelio targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Aurelio
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Aurelio · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.0L5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L2007-082007-112008-042008-072008-102009-08
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Aurelio · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08
L · Dec · R3
Hermes FrancaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10
L · Dec · R3
Tyson GriffinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Sub · R1
Ryan RobertsRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Luke CaudilloRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11

News & Media

Clay Guida · Marcus Aurelio
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