UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Lightweight
VS
51%
Santos
49%
Lee
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:26
LS
Leonardo Santos
18 – 7
6'0"75" reachOrthodox46 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 36
KL
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox77" reach5'9"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Santos

This is a genuine toss-up — Santos at 51% vs Lee at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Lee throws more volume but Santos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Santos's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lee has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Santos
Lee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
75"
Reach
+77"
46
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Lee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.1
35.2
57.5
Performance Avg
48.3
49
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
53
Santos
Lee
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
5
6
Body
5
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance10
0Clinch0
14Ground0
Santos
Lee
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Lee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
24
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Santos
Lee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Santos
Lee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
55%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Santos
Lee
Striking4.3 / 3.0Volume4.8 / 4.1Grappling3.3 / 3.8Wrestling2.3 / 2.6Submission2.9 / 3.6Pressure6.1 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Santos
Strike Zones
Lee
Santos
Attacking
22HEAD6BODY4LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD5BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Lee
Attacking
5HEAD5BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD6BODY4LEGS32 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (69% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Lee targets the head (50% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Santos
RND
Lee
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L3.2L5.9L2013-062015-122020-072022-08
WinLossTrend

Lee · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.6L4.5W6.0W5.2W5.2W5.8W3.3L5.0W5.5L3.6L5.0W4.2L6.4L3.1L2014-022015-122017-062019-112023-07
WinLossTrend

Santos · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
L · KO · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman BogatovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R1
Stevie RayRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06

Lee · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · Sub · R4
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

News & Media

Leonardo Santos · Kevin Lee
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