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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Middleweight
VS
39%
Hawes
61%
Curtis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:27
PH
Phil Hawes
"No Hype"
12 – 6
6'0"77" reachOrthodox37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
Chris
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
32 – 13
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'10"
CFR 50
★ Official Result
Chris CurtiswinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:27
def. Phil Hawes · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Curtis
→
Actual result
Curtis wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis

Curtis holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Hawes has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Hawes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hawes's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
HawesCurtis
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hawes
Curtis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
77"+
Reach
75"
37+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hawes
Curtis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.2
49.5
44.8
Performance Avg
46.3
41
Quality of Victory
41
13
Momentum Score
54
Hawes
Curtis
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
2.3
59%
Strike Accuracy
53%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
15
15
Body
5
9
Leg
1
RangeRange
46Distance18
2Clinch2
0Ground1
Hawes
Curtis
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hawes
Curtis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
70
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
12/45 fights
Hawes
Curtis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
13
54
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Hawes
Curtis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hawes
Curtis
Striking6.0 / 6.1Volume5.0 / 5.1Grappling1.2 / 1.2Wrestling0.8 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 5.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Hawes
Strike Zones
Curtis
Hawes
Attacking
24HEAD15BODY9LEGS48 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD5BODY1LEGS21 absorbed
Curtis
Attacking
15HEAD5BODY1LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD15BODY9LEGS48 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hawes targets the head (50% of attacks) — Curtis absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Curtis targets the head (71% of attacks) — Hawes absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hawes
RND
Curtis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Hawes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0106.0W5.9W5.1W2.2L5.2W2.9L3.2L3.1L2020-102021-052022-062023-052024-01
WinLossTrend

Curtis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.0W6.6W5.8W6.4L6.4W5.8L4.5W6.8L5.0L5.1W7.1L2021-112022-072024-012025-072026-03
WinLossTrend

Hawes · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · KO · R1
Roman DolidzeRating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · KO · R2
Deron WinnRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
Chris CurtisRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

Curtis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R5
Brendan AllenRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

News & Media

Phil Hawes · Chris Curtis
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