UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Washington, USA
7 Dec 2019
Featherweight
VS
71%
Mitchell
29%
Sayles
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:20
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mitchell
Mitchell is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sayles has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Sayles throws more volume but Mitchell connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Mitchell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mitchell
Sayles
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
68"
31+
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Mitchell
Sayles
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
23.2
48.6
Performance Avg
37.0
31
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
22
Mitchell
Sayles
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.6
55%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
5Ground2
Mitchell
Sayles
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mitchell
Sayles
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Mitchell
Sayles
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
22
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Mitchell
Sayles
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mitchell
Sayles
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
MitchellSayles
Strike Zones
Mitchell
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedSayles
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mitchell targets the head (83% of attacks) — Sayles absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Sayles targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mitchell
RND
Sayles
0/0R00/0
Mitchell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Sayles · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Mitchell · Last 5
Upcoming
Victor HenryUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaRating 4.3Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Sayles · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Jordan LeavittRating 4.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
L · Sub · R1
Bryce MitchellRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · Sub · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Sheymon MoraesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08