METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Washington, USA
7 Dec 2019
Featherweight
VS
71%
Mitchell
29%
Sayles
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:20
★ Official Result
Bryce MitchellwinsSubmissionR1 · 4:20
def. Matt Sayles · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mitchell
→
Actual result
Mitchell wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Mitchell is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sayles has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Mitchell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MitchellSayles
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Mitchell
Sayles
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
68"
31+
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Mitchell
Sayles
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.3
23.2
50.2
Performance Avg
37.0
32
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
22
Mitchell
Sayles
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
4.4
Style: Pressure
7.8
7.1
Style: Volume
0.5
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
5Ground2
Mitchell
Sayles
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mitchell
Sayles
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Mitchell
Sayles
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
22
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Mitchell
Sayles
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mitchell
Sayles
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
MitchellSayles
Strike Zones
Mitchell
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedSayles
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mitchell targets the head (83% of attacks) — Sayles absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Sayles targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mitchell
RND
Sayles
0/0R00/0
Mitchell · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Santiago LunaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaSubmission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieKO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettKO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Sayles · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Jordan LeavittSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
L · Sub · R1
Bryce MitchellSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · Sub · R3
Kyle NelsonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Sheymon MoraesDecision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08