Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Interim Lightweight

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett

Las Vegas, USA

24 Jan 2026

Interim Lightweight

49%

Gaethje

51%

Pimblett

Win Probability

Decision

Round 5 · 5:00

Justin Gaethje

"The Highlight"

27 – 5

5'11"70" reachOrthodox37 yrs3-fight win streakStriker

CFR 68

Paddy Pimblett

"The Baddy"

23 – 4

Pressure Fighter31 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"

CFR 70

★ Official Result

Justin GaethjewinsDecisionR5 · 5:00

def. Paddy Pimblett · UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Pimblett

→

Actual result

Gaethje wins

Decision · R5

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Gaethje at 49% vs Pimblett at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Risk flags

Gaethje's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

GaethjePimblett

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Gaethje

Pimblett

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'10"

70"

Reach

+73"

Age

+31

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Gaethje

Pimblett

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

67.6

70.2

65.5

Performance Avg

64.2

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Gaethje

Pimblett

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

7.7

/ 10

4.3

/ 10

6.5

Style: Pressure

7.9

4.3

Style: Volume

3.8

7 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

22Distance18

7Clinch3

0Ground0

Gaethje

Pimblett

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.9

/ 10

4.6

/ 10

0.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.2

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

5.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Gaethje

Pimblett

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R4.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

3 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

16/32 fights

Chin rating based on

9/27 fights

Gaethje

Pimblett

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · KO · R4

W · Dec · R5

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R5

W · KO · R2

Last 5

W · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R5

W · KO · R3

W · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

Gaethje

Pimblett

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

64%

75%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gaethje

Pimblett

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

7.7

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.3

0.9

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.6

0.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.2

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

5.0

6.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.9

4.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.8

Gaethje

Strike Zones

Pimblett

Gaethje

Attacking

29 landed

Absorbing

21 absorbed

Pimblett

Attacking

21 landed

Absorbing

29 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Gaethje targets the head (83% of attacks) — Pimblett absorbs 83% of strikes there

🎯Pimblett targets the head (81% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gaethje

RND

Pimblett

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Gaethje · Last 5

W · KO · R4

Ilia Topuria

KO/TKO

UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06

W · Dec · R5

Paddy Pimblett

Decision

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01

W · Dec · R3

Rafael Fiziev

Decision

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03

L · KO · R5

Max Holloway

KO/TKO

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

W · KO · R2

Dustin Poirier

KO/TKO

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

Pimblett · Last 5

W · Sub · R1

Benoit Saint Denis

Submission

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

L · Dec · R5

Justin Gaethje

Decision

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01

W · KO · R3

Michael Chandler

KO/TKO

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04

W · Sub · R1

King Green

Submission

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

W · Dec · R3

Tony Ferguson

Decision

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

News & Media

Justin Gaethje · Paddy Pimblett

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