★ Championship Bout · Interim Lightweight
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Las Vegas, USA
24 Jan 2026
Interim Lightweight
VS
49%
Gaethje
51%
Pimblett
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Justin
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
27 – 5
5'11"70" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight win streakStriker
CFR 66
Paddy
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
23 – 4
Pressure Fighter31 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"
CFR 69

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pimblett

This is a genuine toss-up — Gaethje at 49% vs Pimblett at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Gaethje has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gaethje's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gaethje
Pimblett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+73"
37
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gaethje
Pimblett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.1
69.2
63.6
Performance Avg
63.1
62
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
85
Gaethje
Pimblett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.4
62%
Strike Accuracy
52%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.6
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
17
4
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
22Distance18
7Clinch3
0Ground0
Gaethje
Pimblett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gaethje
Pimblett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
98
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/32 fights
Chin rating based on
9/27 fights
Gaethje
Pimblett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
85
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Gaethje
Pimblett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
71%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gaethje
Pimblett
Striking7.3 / 4.6Volume4.5 / 4.0Grappling1.0 / 4.1Wrestling0.7 / 2.9Submission0.0 / 4.3Pressure6.2 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Gaethje
Strike Zones
Pimblett
Gaethje
Attacking
24HEAD4BODY1LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD4BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Pimblett
Attacking
17HEAD4BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD4BODY1LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gaethje targets the head (83% of attacks) — Pimblett absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Pimblett targets the head (81% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gaethje
RND
Pimblett
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Gaethje · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W4.0L4.7L5.0W5.5W5.0W6.0W2.1L5.3W2.9L5.5W6.4W5.1L5.5W6.2W2017-072019-032021-112024-042026-01
WinLossTrend

Pimblett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.0W5.0W6.7W4.9W5.0W5.7W6.0W7.1L2021-092022-072023-122025-042026-01
WinLossTrend

Gaethje · Last 5

Upcoming
Ilia Topuria
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

Pimblett · Last 5

Upcoming
Benoit Saint Denis
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 5.7
Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 5
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

News & Media

Justin Gaethje · Paddy Pimblett
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