UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Flyweight
VS
53%
Ortiz
47%
Reis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DO
Dustin Ortiz
19 – 8
5'5"65" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
WR
Wilson Reis
23 – 10
Well-Rounded41 yrsSouthpaw65" reach5'4"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ortiz

This is a genuine toss-up — Ortiz at 53% vs Reis at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ortiz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Reis has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ortiz
Reis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
65"
Reach
65"
37+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ortiz
Reis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
15.5
47.8
Performance Avg
41.5
42
Quality of Victory
33
45
Momentum Score
65
Ortiz
Reis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
33%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
14
2
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance5
4Clinch2
1Ground10
Ortiz
Reis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ortiz
Reis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
38
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Ortiz
Reis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
65
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Ortiz
Reis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
29%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ortiz
Reis
Striking6.1 / 1.1Volume5.1 / 6.8Grappling1.2 / 4.0Wrestling0.8 / 2.8Submission0.0 / 2.9Pressure5.2 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
Ortiz
Strike Zones
Reis
Ortiz
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Reis
Attacking
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ortiz targets the head (80% of attacks) — Reis absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Reis targets the head (82% of attacks) — Ortiz absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ortiz
RND
Reis
0/0R00/0

Ortiz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W3.6L5.0W5.8W5.2W5.5L2013-112014-112016-122018-072019-01
WinLossTrend

Reis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W2.8L4.2L5.5L4.5W2.8L2013-092015-052017-042019-04
WinLossTrend

Ortiz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · KO · R1
Matheus NicolauRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
W · KO · R1
Hector SandovalRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04

Reis · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Ben NguyenRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
John MoragaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · KO · R2
Henry CejudoRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Sub · R3
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.8
Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04

News & Media

Dustin Ortiz · Wilson Reis
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