METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
London, United Kingdom
21 Mar 2026
Featherweight
VS
58%
Riley
42%
Jr.
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 53
★ Official Result
Luke RileywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Michael Aswell Jr. · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Riley
→
Actual result
Riley wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Riley at 58% vs Jr. at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jr. has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RileyJr.
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Riley
Jr.
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
69"
27
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Riley
Jr.
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.7
53.0
68.0
Performance Avg
46.0
47
Quality of Victory
60
100
Momentum Score
36
Riley
Jr.
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.7
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
7.7
Style: Pressure
7.8
4.7
Style: Volume
0.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
9
11
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
26Distance11
6Clinch0
0Ground0
Riley
Jr.
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riley
Jr.
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/13 fights
Chin rating based on
5/15 fights
Riley
Jr.
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Riley
Jr.
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Riley
Jr.
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
RileyJr.
Strike Zones
Riley
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedJr.
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Riley targets the head (66% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Jr. targets the head (82% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Riley
RND
Jr.
0/0R00/0
Riley · Last 3
W · KO · R1
Kai Kamaka IIIKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Michael Aswell Jr.Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R2
Bogdan GradKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
Jr. · Last 5
Upcoming
JooSang YooUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09
L · Dec · R3
Gaston BolanosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Luke RileyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Lucas AlmeidaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Bolaji OkiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05