UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
London, United Kingdom
21 Mar 2026
Featherweight
VS
56%
Riley
44%
Jr.
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Luke
Luke Riley
13 – 0
5'9"69" reachOrthodox26 yrs2-fight win streakVolume Striker
CFR 71
MA
Michael Aswell Jr.
"The Texas Kid"
11 – 4
Knockout Artist25 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'8"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Riley

This is a genuine toss-up — Riley at 56% vs Jr. at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Jr. has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Striking split: Jr. throws more volume but Riley connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Riley
Jr.
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
69"
26
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Riley
Jr.
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.7
56.5
64.0
Performance Avg
49.3
40
Quality of Victory
60
100
Momentum Score
43
Riley
Jr.
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.0
64%
Strike Accuracy
43%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
9
11
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
26Distance11
6Clinch0
0Ground0
Riley
Jr.
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riley
Jr.
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/13 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Riley
Jr.
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Riley
Jr.
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Riley
Jr.
Striking7.0 / 10.0Volume6.0 / 0.7Grappling1.2 / 0.0Wrestling0.8 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Riley
Strike Zones
Jr.
Riley
Attacking
21HEAD11BODY0LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Jr.
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD11BODY0LEGS32 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Riley targets the head (66% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Jr. targets the head (82% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Riley
RND
Jr.
0/0R00/0

Riley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0106.2W5.6W2025-112026-03
WinLossTrend

Jr. · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0105.5L5.1W7.3L2025-052025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Riley · Last 3

Upcoming
Kai Kamaka III
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Michael Aswell Jr.Rating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R2
Bogdan GradRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11

Jr. · Last 4

Upcoming
Gaston Bolanos
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Luke RileyRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Lucas AlmeidaRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Bolaji OkiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05

News & Media

Luke Riley · Michael Aswell Jr.
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