UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
31 Jan 2015
Middleweight
VS
54%
Natal
46%
Watson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Natal
This is a genuine toss-up — Natal at 54% vs Watson at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Watson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Watson throws more volume but Natal connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Natal
Watson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
77"+
Reach
73"
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Natal
Watson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
12.7
40.5
Performance Avg
35.4
30
Quality of Victory
40
81
Momentum Score
10
Natal
Watson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
5
2
Body
1
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
24Distance10
0Clinch1
1Ground0
Natal
Watson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.8
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Natal
Watson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
90
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
7/26 fights
Natal
Watson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
10
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Natal
Watson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Natal
Watson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
NatalWatson
Strike Zones
Natal
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedWatson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Natal targets the head (84% of attacks) — Watson absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Watson targets the head (45% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 45% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Natal
RND
Watson
0/0R00/0
Natal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Watson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Natal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05
Watson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · 2015-08
L · Dec · R3
Rafael NatalRating 5.5Decision
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Nick CatoneRating 5.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08