UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
Calgary, Canada
21 Jul 2012
Bantamweight
VS
53%
Caraway
47%
Gagnon
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:39
BC
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
21 – 9
5'8"68" reachOrthodox41 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
MG
Mitch Gagnon
12 – 5
Submission Hunter3-fight slide41 yrsSouthpaw65" reach5'5"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Caraway

This is a genuine toss-up — Caraway at 53% vs Gagnon at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Caraway throws more volume but Gagnon connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Caraway
Gagnon
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'5"
68"+
Reach
65"
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Caraway
Gagnon
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.0
17.4
47.9
Performance Avg
48.0
40
Quality of Victory
47
82
Momentum Score
38
Caraway
Gagnon
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
46%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
3
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Caraway
Gagnon
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.6
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caraway
Gagnon
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
72
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/30 fights
Chin rating based on
8/17 fights
Caraway
Gagnon
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
38
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Caraway
Gagnon
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
75%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Caraway
Gagnon
Striking1.2 / 1.0Volume3.9 / 3.0Grappling6.1 / 6.6Wrestling4.3 / 4.6Submission6.7 / 7.5Pressure6.5 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.6
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.6
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.5
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Caraway
Strike Zones
Gagnon
Caraway
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Gagnon
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gagnon targets the head (100% of attacks) — Caraway absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Caraway
RND
Gagnon
0/0R00/0

Caraway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W5.5L5.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.5W5.5L2.0L2011-122013-042015-072018-11
WinLossTrend

Gagnon · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.0L5.5L5.5L2012-072013-092014-102016-122019-05
WinLossTrend

Caraway · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Pedro MunhozRating 2
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

Gagnon · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cole SmithRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Matthew LopezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
L · Sub · R3
Renan BaraoRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
W · Sub · R1
Roman SalazarRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tim GormanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04

News & Media

Bryan Caraway · Mitch Gagnon
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