UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
Belem, Brazil
3 Feb 2018
Bantamweight
VS
57%
Alcantara
43%
Soto
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:06
IA
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
35 – 10
5'9"71" reachSouthpaw45 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
JS
Joe Soto
"One Bad Mofo"
18 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'6"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alcantara

This is a genuine toss-up — Alcantara at 57% vs Soto at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Alcantara throws more volume but Soto connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Alcantara's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Soto has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Alcantara
Soto
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
65"
45
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Alcantara
Soto
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.9
12.7
48.0
Performance Avg
39.8
41
Quality of Victory
41
49
Momentum Score
20
Alcantara
Soto
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
1
3
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance1
1Clinch0
8Ground0
Alcantara
Soto
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alcantara
Soto
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
20
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
8/25 fights
Alcantara
Soto
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
20
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Alcantara
Soto
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alcantara
Soto
Striking4.2 / 0.8Volume5.2 / 3.4Grappling2.8 / 6.1Wrestling2.0 / 4.3Submission2.0 / 6.7Pressure5.3 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Alcantara
Strike Zones
Soto
Alcantara
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Soto
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alcantara targets the head (76% of attacks) — Soto absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Soto targets the head (100% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alcantara
RND
Soto
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alcantara · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W5.2W1.8L5.5L5.0W4.2L2011-082014-022016-012018-022018-08
WinLossTrend

Soto · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0104.1L1.5L5.5L5.5W5.0W4.9W1.5L1.5L2014-082016-012016-112017-122018-02
WinLossTrend

Alcantara · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Sub · R1
Brian KelleherRating 1.8
Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Luke SandersRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03

Soto · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Iuri AlcantaraRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · Sub · R1
Brett JohnsRating 1.5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Rani YahyaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
W · Sub · R1
Marco BeltranRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · Sub · R3
Chris BealRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06

News & Media

Iuri Alcantara · Joe Soto
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