★ Championship Bout · Women's Bantamweight
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Toronto, Canada
20 Jan 2024
Women's Bantamweight
VS
50%
Pennington
50%
Silva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pennington
This is a genuine toss-up — Pennington at 50% vs Silva at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Pennington throws more volume but Silva connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pennington's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pennington
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
67"+
Reach
66"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pennington
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.8
47.2
46.8
Performance Avg
45.0
32
Quality of Victory
47
80
Momentum Score
26
Pennington
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
5
5
Body
0
9
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance6
7Clinch0
19Ground1
Pennington
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.9
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pennington
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
14/17 fights
Pennington
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
26
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · R2
L · Dec · R5
Pennington
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
23%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
4
10
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pennington
Silva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.9
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.8
2.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.4
PenningtonSilva
Strike Zones
Pennington
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedSilva
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pennington targets the head (59% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (71% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pennington
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
Pennington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaRating 7Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 5.1Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Aspen LaddRating 4.5Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Sub · R2
Macy ChiassonRating 6.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
Silva · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michelle MontagueRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Jacqueline CavalcantiRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Jasmine JasudaviciusRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · R2
Macy ChiassonRating 6.1UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Raquel PenningtonRating 6.1Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01