UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
7 Feb 2026
Bantamweight
VS
51%
Bautista
49%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:46
Mario
Mario Bautista
17 – 3
5'9"69" reachSwitch32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Vinicius
Vinicius Oliveira
"LokDog"
23 – 4
Well-Rounded30 yrsSwitch70" reach5'9"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bautista

This is a genuine toss-up — Bautista at 51% vs Oliveira at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bautista's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Bautista
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+70"
32
Age
+30
Switch
Stance
Switch
Bautista
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.7
55.0
54.6
Performance Avg
50.8
39
Quality of Victory
31
73
Momentum Score
76
Bautista
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.2
52%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
3
3
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
5Distance5
0Clinch1
7Ground0
Bautista
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
3.6
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bautista
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
88
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
5/27 fights
Bautista
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
76
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Bautista
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
25%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bautista
Oliveira
Striking2.5 / 4.1Volume5.9 / 7.6Grappling4.2 / 1.8Wrestling3.0 / 1.3Submission3.6 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
Bautista
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Bautista
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY3LEGS6 absorbed
Oliveira
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY3LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bautista targets the head (75% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (50% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bautista
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0

Bautista · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.0L4.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W5.3W5.0W5.0W5.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W6.8L6.1W2019-012022-022023-082025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0106.5W5.2W5.9W5.2W3.2L2024-032024-062025-022025-072026-02
WinLossTrend

Bautista · Last 5

Upcoming
Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

Oliveira · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Mario BautistaRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Ricky SimonRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R3
Benardo SopajRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

News & Media

Mario Bautista · Vinicius Oliveira
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