METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
7 Feb 2026
Bantamweight
VS
51%
Bautista
49%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:46
★ Official Result
Mario BautistawinsSubmissionR2 · 4:46
def. Vinicius Oliveira · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bautista
→
Actual result
Bautista wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Bautista at 51% vs Oliveira at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bautista's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BautistaOliveira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bautista
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+70"
33
Age
+30
Switch
Stance
Switch
Bautista
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.7
55.0
54.6
Performance Avg
50.8
39
Quality of Victory
31
73
Momentum Score
76
Bautista
Oliveira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
2.2
52%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
3
3
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
5Distance5
0Clinch1
7Ground0
Bautista
Oliveira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
3.6
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bautista
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
88
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
5/27 fights
Bautista
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
76
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Bautista
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
25%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bautista
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
BautistaOliveira
Strike Zones
Bautista
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bautista targets the head (75% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (50% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bautista
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Bautista · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Bautista · Last 5
Upcoming
Cory SandhagenUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
Oliveira · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Mario BautistaRating 3.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 5.2Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Ricky SimonRating 5.2Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R3
Benardo SopajRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03