Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira

Las Vegas, USA

7 Feb 2026

Bantamweight

49%

Bautista

51%

Oliveira

Win Probability

Submission

Round 2 · 4:46

Mario Bautista

17 – 3

5'9"69" reachSwitch33 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 56

Vinicius Oliveira

"LokDog"

23 – 4

Well-Rounded30 yrsSwitch70" reach5'9"

CFR 59

★ Official Result

Mario BautistawinsSubmissionR2 · 4:46

def. Vinicius Oliveira · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Oliveira

→

Actual result

Bautista wins

Submission · R2

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Bautista at 49% vs Oliveira at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Bautista's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

BautistaOliveira

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Bautista

Oliveira

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'9"

Height

5'9"

69"

Reach

+70"

Age

+30

Switch

Stance

Switch

Bautista

Oliveira

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

56.3

58.8

54.5

Performance Avg

54.9

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Bautista

Oliveira

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.4

/ 10

5.7

/ 10

5.3

Style: Pressure

5.3

6.3

Style: Volume

6.5

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

5Distance5

0Clinch1

7Ground0

Bautista

Oliveira

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.1

/ 10

1.4

/ 10

2.9

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.0

3.3

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Bautista

Oliveira

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

11 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

15/20 fights

Chin rating based on

6/27 fights

Bautista

Oliveira

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

W · KO · R2

L · Sub · R2

W · Dec · R3

Bautista

Oliveira

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

42%

40%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bautista

Oliveira

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.4

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

5.7

4.1

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.4

2.9

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.0

3.3

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

5.3

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.3

6.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.5

Bautista

Strike Zones

Oliveira

Bautista

Attacking

12 landed

Absorbing

6 absorbed

Oliveira

Attacking

6 landed

Absorbing

12 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Bautista targets the head (75% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 75% of strikes there

🎯Oliveira targets the head (50% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bautista

RND

Oliveira

0/0R00/0

Bautista · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Cory Sandhagen

Decision

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

W · Sub · R2

Vinicius Oliveira

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02

L · Dec · R3

Umar Nurmagomedov

Decision

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10

W · Dec · R3

Patchy Mix

Decision

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

W · Dec · R3

Jose Aldo

Decision

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

Oliveira · Last 5

W · KO · R2

Andre Fili

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

L · Sub · R2

Mario Bautista

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02

W · Dec · R3

Kyler Phillips

Decision

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07

W · Dec · R3

Said Nurmagomedov

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02

W · Dec · R3

Ricky Simon

Decision

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

News & Media

Mario Bautista · Vinicius Oliveira

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